美国经济冲击对东亚经济波动的传导:基于面板logit模型的实证分析

美国经济冲击会通过具体渠道进行传导,影响东亚地区的经济波动.具体来看,与美国的双边进口贸易渠道和FDI渠道的传导会增加东亚地区经济波动概率,并且在控制国内经济规模后,边际效应进一步提高;与美国的双边出口贸易渠道和汇率渠道的传导反而会降低东亚地区经济波动的概率;并且传导效应在不同经济发展程度的国家呈现出明显的差异,发展中经济体受美国经济冲击的影响较大.

U.S.Economic Shocks Conductivity on the East Asian Economic Fluctuation:Empirical analysis based on panel logit model

US economic shocks is conducted through specific channels,and impact of the East Asia economic fluctuations.Specifically,the conduction of bilateral import trade channels and FDI channels will increase the probability of East Asia fluctuations,and the marginal effect becomes larger when controlled the domestic economy scale;the conduction of bilateral export trade and exchange rate channels will reduce the probability of the East Asia economic fluctuations;conduction effect showing a significant difference in the countries with different level of economic development,the developing economies show greater impact of US shocks.