| 神经网络汛期降水短期气候预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴有训,程雪生,胡安霞.神经网络汛期降水短期气候预测模型[J].数学的实践与认识,2010,40(3). |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴有训 程雪生 胡安霞 |
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| 作者单位： | 安徽省宣城市气象局,安徽,宣城,242000 |
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| 摘 要： | 用1960-2005年每年5-9月安徽宣城7县(市)平均降水量作为预报对象,在对应降水前期逐月74项大气环流特征量资料、500hPa月平均高度场和月平均海温场资料中选取因子.采用主分量分析方法构造网络学习矩阵,降低矩阵维数,提高网络预测模型泛化性能.建立的神经网络汛期降水短期气候预测模型对历年样本拟合精度高,试报效果较好,可在气候预测业务中使用.
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| 关 键 词： | 神经网络 降水预测 主分量分析 |
Short-Term Climate Prediction Model of Neural Network on Flood Season Rainfall Amount |
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| WU You-xun,CHENG Xue-sheng,HU An-xia.Short-Term Climate Prediction Model of Neural Network on Flood Season Rainfall Amount[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2010,40(3). |
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| Authors: | WU You-xun CHENG Xue-sheng HU An-xia |
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| Institution: | WU You-xun,CHENG Xue-sheng,HU An-xia (Xuancheng Meteorological Office,Xuancheng 242000,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the seven station of the average precipitation in Xuancheng With May to September each year from 1960 to 2005 as predictand,the selection factor from the monthly atmospheric circulation characteristic value data,the average monthly 500hPa height field data and the average monthly sea surface temperature field data.Establishment by means of making a low-dimension ANN learing matrix through principal component analysis,Improve the network prediction model of generalization performance.The results sho... |
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| Keywords: | neural network precipitation forecast principal component analysis |
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