A new-structure grey Verhulst model: Development and performance comparison |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Business Planning, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067, China;2. School of Economics and Management, Chongqing Normal University, Chongqing 401331, China;3. School of Science, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang 621010, China;1. School of Science, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang, China;2. State Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploitation, Southwest Petroleum University, China;3. School of Science, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, China;1. School of Science, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang, 621010, China;2. Visual Computing and Virtual Reality Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu, 610068, China;3. State Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploitation, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, 610500, China;4. College of Business Planning, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing, 400067, China;5. School of Mathematics Science, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu, 610068, China;6. School of Science, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, 610500, China;7. School of Computing, Mathematics and Digital Technology, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester M1 5GD England, United Kingdom |
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| Abstract: | The structure defect of the traditional grey Verhulst model is a key factor leading to its unstable performance. A new-structure grey Verhulst model (N_Verhulst) was proposed by introducing a new non-homogeneous exponential function. The N_Verhulst model has a better structure and stronger modeling ability; Meanwhile, it overcomes the shortcomings of the traditional Verhulst model including parameter dislocation and unreasonable selection of initial values. Four typical cases were used to test the performance of N_Verhulst, and the simulation/prediction results of the new model were compared with the traditional Verhulst model and the Pearl model. Results showed that the N_Verhulst model had evidently superior performance to the traditional grey Verhulst model, which confirms that the structure development of the new model is reasonable and effective. |
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