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| 应用逐步统计判别模型预报麦蚜复合种群动态 | |
| 引用本文： | 丁世飞,董厚奎,马文汇,刘哲. 应用逐步统计判别模型预报麦蚜复合种群动态[J]. 数理统计与管理, 2000, 19(6): 1-4,7 |
| 作者姓名： | 丁世飞 董厚奎 马文汇 刘哲 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 山东农业大学理学院,泰安,271018 2. 山东省章丘市农业广播学校,山东章丘,250100 3. 山东省章丘市明水林业站,山东章丘,250100 |
| 摘 要： | 本文应用逐步统计判别原理 ,对山东省曲阜地区 1982～ 1994年共 13年麦蚜复合种群动态的系统调查资料进行了统计分析 ,建立了 4个统计判别数学模型 :dy1=0 .1 343x1- 0 .1 472x2 ; y2 =0 .740 9x1- 0 .1 1 85x2 ;y3=- 8.391 5x1- 1 .785 6x2 ; y4=2 .32 40x1- 0 .30 82x2运用所建模型 ,对历史资料进行回代验证 ,其平均历史拟合率在 93%以上 ,并以 1 995年作为独立样本进行试报 ,结果与实际一致。 |
| 关 键 词： | 逐步统计判别原理 麦蚜 种群动态 |
Application on Forecasting Complex Population Dynamics of Wheat Aphid by Stepwise Statistical Dicriminatory Principle |
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| Ding Shi fei ,et.al. Application on Forecasting Complex Population Dynamics of Wheat Aphid by Stepwise Statistical Dicriminatory Principle[J]. Application of Statistics and Management, 2000, 19(6): 1-4,7 | |
| Authors: | Ding Shi fei et.al |
| Affiliation: | Ding Shi fei 1,et.al |
| Abstract: | In this paper,according to stepwise statistical discriminatory Principle,the authors deduced four stepwise statistical discriminatory models for forecasting complesx population dynamics of Wheat aphid during 1982～1994 in Qufu,Shandong Province.The results testing the past data showed that the average fitting rate was over 93%,and that accuracy of forecasting is satisfied. |
| Keywords: | stepwise statistical discriminatory principle wheat aphid population dynam |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |