The value of information to decision makers: an experimental approach using card-based decision gaming |
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Authors: | J Medhurst I M Stanton H Bird A Berry |
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Affiliation: | 1.Larrainzar Consulting Solutions Ltd,Salisbury,UK;2.Defence Science and Technology Laboratories,Salisbury,UK |
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Abstract: | This paper describes a novel experimental method for determining the value of different types of information to military decision makers. The experimental method used a simple scenario and a set of serials constructed from cards, each presenting a single piece of information and presented sequentially. Each of a number of pairs of players were taken through the scenario and asked to judge when they would make each of a pair of escalating responses to the situation. The data proved well suited to analysis using a probit model and is consistent with the hypothesis of a Bayesian decision mechanism with normally distributed ‘action points’. The methodology allowed the determination of weights for each of a number of different classes of information, together with estimates of the human and situational elements of variation, including estimates of the ‘prior belief’ of the different pairs of players. |
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