A model of influenza virus spread as a function of temperature and humidity

The influence that atmospheric conditions might have on the efficiency of the spread of influenza virus is important for epidemiological and evolutionary research. However, it has not been satisfactorily recognized and quantified so far. Here we provide a statistical model of influenza transmission between individuals. It has been derived from the results of recent experiments, which involved infecting guinea pigs with influenza at various temperatures and relative air humidity levels. The wide range of transmission rates in those experiments reflects the ensemble-independent phenomena. The correlation between most of our simulations and the experimental results is satisfactory. For several different conditions, we obtained transmissibility values which seem to be sufficiently accurate to provide partial input for an intended large-scale epidemiological study in the near future.