高炉铁水含硅量序列的动力学结构分析

以邯郸钢铁公司7号高炉在线采集的2000炉铁水含硅量［Si］数据为样本，对［Si］时间序列作了基于逆序数的平稳性检验.然后，在关联积分的基础上，定义了衡量不同时间序列间动力学相似性的“距离”，通过等分采集得到的［Si］序列，计算子序列间的“距离”，发现了高炉冶炼过程中存在显著的动力学结构突变性，最后应用DVV算法分析动力学性质变动下，高炉铁水含硅量［Si］的可预测性. 关键词： 高炉冶炼 平稳性 动力学相似性 可预测性

The analysis of dynamic structure of silicon content in blast furnace hot metal

With Si time series of No.7 blast furnace (BF) at Han Iron and Steel Group Co. as sample space, the stationarity of Si time series is tested based on the number of reversed order. A statistical measure of dynamic closeness between two orbits is defined using correlation integral. Divide the Si series into equal-length windows, according to the calculation of the characterization between these windows, the dynamic abrupt changes in BF ironmaking process are detected. Finally the novel DVV (delay vector variance) method is used to examine the predictability of Si time series during the dynamic evolution.