基于时空地理加权回归模型的浙江省碳排放时空格局及驱动因素分析

测算并分析浙江省1995—2015年碳排放量的动态变化特征, 通过时空地理加权回归模型分析各影响因素对碳排放总量影响的时空异质性. 结果表明 (1)1995—2015年浙江省碳排放总量总体上呈上升趋势, 年均增长率为6.69%; 能源活动碳排放是浙江省碳排放的主要来源, 工业碳排放是能源活动碳排放的主要来源; 非能源活动碳排放是浙江省碳排放的次要来源, 水泥生产和水稻种植是非能源活动碳排放的主要来源; (2)浙江省碳排放重心大致落在绍兴市西南部, 浙江省碳排放重心经历了西北向—西北向—东南向—东向的转移; (3)各主成分因素对碳排放的影响方向和强度具有明显的时空异质性.

Analysis of spatial-temporal pattern and driving factors of carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province based on spatial-temporal geographic weighted regression model

In this study, the dynamic changes of carbon emissions from 1995 to 2015 in Zhejiang Province are calculated and analyzed. Also analyzed is the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the impact of various influencing factors on total carbon emissions through a GTWR model. The results show that (1) From 1995 to 2015, the total carbon emission of Zhejiang Province shows an overall upward trend, with an average annual growth rate of 6.69%. Carbon emission from energy activities proves to be the main source of carbon emission in Zhejiang Province, and industrial carbon emission is found to be the main source of carbon emission from energy activities. Non-energy activity carbon emissions act as the secondary source of carbon emission in Zhejiang Province. Cement production and rice cultivation turn out to be the main source of non-energy activity carbon emissions; (2) The carbon emission center of Zhejiang Province is located roughly in the southwest of Shaoxing City. The center is noted for having been shifting in order of from northwest to northwest to southeast to east; (3) The direction and intensity of the main component factors on carbon emissions exhibit obvious spatial and temporal heterogeneity.