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本文用Bayes方法来检验两种药品之间的口味是否相同, 得到了与人们的直观感觉相吻合的结论\bd 设$(x_1,x_2,x_3)$服从参数为$(p_1,p_2,p_3)$的多项分布, 则检验口味的问题转为检验$H_i:(p_1,p_2,p_3)$ $\in\Theta_ii=1,2,3$三个假设的问题. 在使用Bayes方法时, 其关键是选择合理的先验分布, 这里选择相应的先验分布为无信息先验, 据此求出每个假设的后验概率, 从而得到结论\bd

Testing on Flavor Analysis

In testing whether the flavors of two samples are the same by applying Bayesian methods, the paper draws the conclusion that it is identical with human intuition. Suppose that x_1,x_2,x_3) is distributed as polynomial distribution with parameters $(p_1,p_2,p_3)$, then the question of flavor testing is changed to test three hypotheses, $H_i:(p_1, p_2, p_3)in\Theta_i$ $i=1,2,3. In applying the Bayesian methods, the key lies in the choice of proper prior distribution, and herein noninformation prior is selected. Accordingly, the posterior probabilities of the above hypotheses are derived, and the conclusion is reached.