| FMG模型的改进及其应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈胤华,卢晓霞.FMG模型的改进及其应用[J].数学的实践与认识,2007,37(18):78-84. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈胤华 卢晓霞 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江省东阳市气象局,东阳,322100 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对张信昌等提出的FMG预测模型存在的预测精度和准确性不稳定等问题,根据GM(1,1)模型和马尔可夫过程研究的新成果,改进了FMG预测模型,并利用东阳市年降水量资料进行预测试验,初步结果表明,与原来的预测模型相比,改进后的模型在长期性降水预测结果的准确性方面有了明显的提高.
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| 关 键 词： | 降水 FMG模型 改进 应用 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年6月6日 |
Improvement and Application of FMG-Model |
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| CHEN Yin-hua,LU Xiao-xia.Improvement and Application of FMG-Model[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2007,37(18):78-84. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Yin-hua LU Xiao-xia |
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| Abstract: | Considering defects in the FMG model of Zhang Xinchang etc,based on the new research achievement of GM(1,1) model and Markov process,the model is improved in this paper,and carries on the forecasting experiment using the Dongyang year-precipitation.The example indicated,that the improved model can be used for precipitation-forecasting with obvious rise in accuracy of forecasting result. |
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| Keywords: | precipitation FMG model Improvement application |
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