建设项目投资风险指标及模糊综合度量的研究

风险管理是建设项目管理的一个非常重要的方面,而风险指标是反映建设项目风险状况进行风险分析的一个重要内容.许多的学者对风险指标做过研究,其中大部分涉及的是经济评价和财务评价指标,或者使用损失期望值和方差的代数运算作为指标.本文在分析及总结前人风险指标研究成果的基础上,提出建设项目成本、时间和财务三方面的有关风险指标,并给出各指标的说明和计算公式.为综合评价建设项目的风险,本文利用了效用理论的思想和模糊理论方法,并以实例说明此模糊综合评价的具体计算步骤.

Study of Risk Indices and Fuzzy Integrative Evaluation of Construction Project Investment

Risk management is one of the very important aspects of construction project management, and risk indices are one of the very important contents reflecting the risk of construction project. A lot of studies on risk indices have been done, but many of them only concern the financial and economical evaluative indices, or use the algebra operation of expectation and variation of loss as risk indices. Base on the researches of pre-scholars, this paper presents the risk indices of cost, time and finance of construction project, and gives the explanation and calculation expression of each indices. Using utility theory and fuzzy theory, the fuzzy integrative evaluation method is discussed, and the example also is given.