基于威布尔分布的水电设备费用模型研究

对于现代设备管理信息系统的新模式，建立了水电设备全寿期费用定量模型．将设备在全寿命周期内的费用划分为购置费和维护费，分别建立了基于时间分摊的投资费用模型和基于威布尔分布的维护费用模型，分析了威布尔分布函数的各个参数的性质，讨论了水电设备的最小费用和最佳使用寿命的求解方法．针对维护费用模型中的不确定性问题，给出了两参数威布尔分布函数拟合方法，采用线性回归方法对参数进行估计，最后给出了参数求解的实例．

Hydroelectric equipment cost model based on Weibull distribution

To the new model of the modern hydroelectric equipment management, the quantify model of the hydroelectric equipment in the life cycle is proposed. The life cycle cost was set off acquisition cost and sustaining cost, the investment cost model based on time-proportion and the sustaining cost model based on Weibull distribution were built, the property of all parameters in Weibull distribution function were analyzed, and the method of getting the least cost and the best life-period were discussed. Aiming the uncertainty in the sustaining cost model, the two parameters distribution simulative method of Weibull distribution are presented, and the relevant parameters by the method of linear regression were estimated. In the end, the example of the parameters requested is presented.