Are global terrorist attacks time-correlated? |
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Institution: | 1. Kimya Mühendisliği Bölümü, Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, Ankara 06800, Turkey;2. Deutsche Bundesbank, Wilhelm Epstein Str. 14, 60431 Frankfurt, Germany |
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Abstract: | Is there any kind of “memory” in the sequence of terror attacks worldwide? Are the terrorist attacks non-randomly time distributed? Our analysis suggests that they are correlated, which means that a terror event is not independent from the time elapsed since the previous event. But, if we consider terror attacks with a large severity index (number of fatalities or injured), the phenomenon is unpredictable, since it approaches a Poisson process (random, independent and uncorrelated). |
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