基于0-1测试方法的含噪声降雨-径流时间序列混沌特征分析

运用0-1测试方法识别降雨-径流时间序列混沌特性,并探讨噪声对该方法的影响.该方法直接应用于时间序列不需要相空间重构,通过量化渐进增长率K(c),以其中值是否接近于0或1来识别时间序列的混沌特性.以云南省红河流域大东勇水文站10年的日降雨量和日径流量观测时间序列为例,运用小波去噪法对原始时间序列进行去噪,然后利用0-1测试方法中回归方法和关联方法分别量化渐进增长率K(c),从而进行混沌特性的识别和判定,并分析噪声对混沌特性的影响.结果表明,0-1测试方法简单有效地验证了该降雨-径流时间序列去噪前后均存在混沌特性,且关联方法获得的混沌特性比回归方法显著；该方法具有较高的抗噪声干扰能力,且关联方法受噪声影响比回归方法小.

Analysis of chaotic characteristics of rainfall-runoff time series with noise based on the 0-1 test algorithm

Zero-One(0-1) Test Algorithm has been adopted to explore the chaotic characteristics of rainfall-runoff time series and noises' effects.It's advantage is to avoid the reconstruction of phase space.Quantitative the progressive growth rates K(c)，whose median is close to 0 or 1，has been applied to define the chaotic characteristics of rainfall-runoff time series.A case study of Dadongyong Hydrological Station，Red River Basin，Yunnan Province，has been conducted here.This paper has collected the data of observation time series of Dadongyong Station's daily rainfall and daily runoff.Wavelet Denoising Method has been used to denoise the original time series.Meanwhile，methods of regression and correlation in 0-1 Test Algorithm have been adopted to quantify the progressive growth rates K(c) respectively to define the chaotic characteristics and analyze the effects of noises on the characteristics.Results show that 0-1 Test Algorithm is an effective means to verify that chaotic characteristics of rainfall-runoff time series exist before and after denoising.Chaotic characteristics gained by correlation method are more notable than regression method.The former is more resilient to noise interference than the latter.Thus，the vulnerability of noise in correlation method is less than regression method.