长江下游冬季冷暖长期演变规律及展望

本文利用上海113年(1873-1985)气温资料，分析了长江下游冬季冷暖长期演变规律.结果表明:冬季冷暖长期演变存在着明显的阶段性，一百余年冷暖交替出现，经历了三段冷期和两段暖期.冬季冷暖长期演变的显著周期有2-3年、40年左右、70-80年等.本文讨论了大火山爆发对长江下游冬季冷暖变化的可能影响.在统计上，火山活动70年左右的周期振荡与上海冬季温度70-80年演变周期相吻合.

The Characteristics of the Long-Range variations of the Winter Temperature in the Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River and Its Prospect

With the help of the temperature data ( 1873-1985 ) of Shanghai, the long-rang variations of the winter temperature in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River are examined. It is found that there are obvious stages of the winter temperature in 1873-1985. There are there lower temperature stages and two higher temperature stages. 2 to 3 , 40 and 70 to 80 year fluctuations are significant in the variations of the winter temperature.We have discussed in this paper the effect of volcanic eruptions on variations of the winter temperature.