基于异质预期的房地产价格波动分析

市场参与者的预期对价格波动有重要影响,而我国房地产市场预期是一种理性预期与非理性预期共存的混合预期模式,基于这种混合预期模式,引入行为金融学中的噪声交易者模型,及建立房价决定因素模型,并对35个大中城市的面板数据进行实证分析.结果表明:理性预期对房价上涨产生负向效应,能够减缓价格波动;而噪声交易者预期则会进一步推动房价的上涨.

Real Estate Price Fluctuations Based on Heterogeneous Expectations:Analysis

In real estate sectors, the expectation of market participants has a significant impact on price fluctuations. In China, expectations toward real estate market combine the rational and irrational ones. Based on these expectations, we introduce DSSW model from the behavioral finance perspective containing the determinant factors of housing price, and conduct the analysis using empirical data collected from 35 cities. The analytical result shows that the rational expectations have a negative effect leading to reducing the volatility risk of price, while expectations from noise trader push up housing price.