全国及湖北省新冠肺炎综合风险指数分析及比较

 新型冠状肺炎综合风险评估是开展疫情风险管理和防控的关键途径,而评估方法是其中的关键。以公共安全的“三角形”模型为指导,考虑突发事件即病毒本身的危险性、承灾载体即易感人群的脆弱性、应急管理的有效性3个维度因素,建立了综合多个维度的风险评估方法。评估结果显示,当前数据显示综合风险最高的5个省（市）级地区分别为湖北、上海、香港、北京和广东;在湖北省内,综合风险最高的4个地级市分别为武汉、鄂州、孝感和黄冈。

Analysis and comparison of comprehensive risk index of COVID-19 in China and Hubei province

The comprehensive risk assessment of COVID-19 is a key approach to the comprehensive epidemic risk management while the assessment method is the key to the epidemic risk assessment. This paper uses the public security "triangular model" and considers the three factors, i.e., the incident(the hazard of the virus itself), the vulnerability of hazard-affected carriers(the vulnerability of vulnerable groups), and the effectiveness of emergency management to establish a multidimensional risk assessment method, which can help to provide effective method for the next epidemic response and plans of resource allocation. According to the assessment results, the top five provinces with highest comprehensive risk are respectively Hubei, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Beijing and Guangdong. Within Hubei province, the top four cities are Wuhan, E'zhou, Xiaogan and Huanggang.