Mutual Support of Ligand- and Structure-Based Approaches—To What Extent We Can Optimize the Power of Predictive Model? Case Study of Opioid Receptors

The process of modern drug design would not exist in the current form without computational methods. They are part of every stage of the drug design pipeline, supporting the search and optimization of new bioactive substances. Nevertheless, despite the great help that is offered by in silico strategies, the power of computational methods strongly depends on the input data supplied at the stage of the predictive model construction. The studies on the efficiency of the computational protocols most often focus on global efficiency. They use general parameters that refer to the whole dataset, such as accuracy, precision, mean squared error, etc. In the study, we examined machine learning predictions obtained for opioid receptors (mu, kappa, delta) and focused on cases for which the predictions were the most accurate and the least accurate. Moreover, by using docking, we tried to explain prediction errors. We attempted to develop a rule of thumb, which can help in the prediction of compound activity towards opioid receptors via docking, especially those that have been incorrectly predicted by machine learning. We found out that although the combination of ligand- and structure-based path can be beneficial for the prediction accuracy, there still remain cases that cannot be reliably predicted by any available modeling method. In addition to challenging ligand- and structure-based predictions, we also examined the role of the application of machine-learning methods in comparison to simple statistical methods for both standard ligand-based representations (molecular fingerprints) and interaction fingerprints. All approaches were confronted in both classification (where compounds were assigned to the group of active and inactive group constructed on the basis of K_i values) and regression (where exact K_i value was predicted) experiments.