基于灰色马尔可夫模型的物流配送需求量预测研究

研究可以较准确地预测物流配送需求量的数学模型,以服务于政府及企业的物流规划及其决策.将灰色理论和离散状态的马尔可夫链相结合,用灰色马尔可夫链对物流配送需求量进行实证研究.针对灰色数据系列首先用GM模型进行趋势预测,然后利用马尔可夫状态转移概率矩阵预报方法对其预测值进行二次拟合,预测精度明显高于GM模型预测.

Study of Logistics Demand Forecast based on Grey-Markov Model

The prediction of logistics demand the decision base that the government relevant department make logistics plan and build logistics basis.A Grey Markov Model for forecasting logistics demand is presented by means of combining Greysystem theory with dispersed Markov Chains theory.First of all,according to the variable sequence,GM(1,1)model is setup to forecast the general development trend of variable asf irst fitting values,then the fitting values are revised by means of Markov state chang probability matr...