| 水资源短缺风险因子的筛选模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 魏歆,董小小,唐棣,罗万春.水资源短缺风险因子的筛选模型[J].数学的实践与认识,2011,41(23). |
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| 作者姓名： | 魏歆 董小小 唐棣 罗万春 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 第三军医大学学员旅九队,重庆,400038
2. 第三军医大学数学教研室,重庆,400038 |
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| 基金项目： | 第三军医大学基础部学员创新基金(2007) |
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| 摘 要： | 水资源短缺评价首先需要确定指标体系,投影寻踪模型与灰色关联度法相结合,可以有效地筛选出水资源短缺风险因子,为进一步进行风险评价奠定了基础,同时也为制定风险的防范措施和对策提供了理论依据.综合应用这两种模型,对北京市2001～2009年的水资源短缺风险进行研究,结果表明:降水量、日照时数、雨日数、单位GDP污水排放量、人均GDP、工业总产值占有率、污水处理率和水循环使用率这8个指标是北京市水资源短缺的主要风险因子.
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| 关 键 词： | 投影寻踪 灰色关联度法 水资源短缺 主要风险因子 |
Screening Model of Risk Factors of the Shortage of Water Resources |
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| WEI Xin,DONG Xiao-xiao,TANG Di,LUO Wan-chun.Screening Model of Risk Factors of the Shortage of Water Resources[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2011,41(23). |
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| Authors: | WEI Xin DONG Xiao-xiao TANG Di LUO Wan-chun |
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| Institution: | WEI Xin~1,DONG Xiao-xiao~1,TANG Di~1,LUO Wan-chun~2 (1.The 9~(th) Team of Cadet Brigade,Third Military Medical University,Chongqing 400038,China) (2.Department of Mathematics,China) |
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| Abstract: | To evaluate the shortage of water resources,firstly we need to determine the index system.By combining Projection Pursuit model with Grey correlation method,the main risk factors of the shortage of water resources can be effectively selected,which lays the foundation of the further evaluation and provides theoretical basis for formulating measures against water shortage.The two models have been comprehensively applied to study the shortage of water resources risk,and we have drawn the conclusion that the 8 ... |
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| Keywords: | projection pursuit grey correlation the shortage of water resources main risk factor |
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