Cash transfer program and education investment: A model for social evolution |
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| Institution: | 1. Universidade Nove de Julho, Departamento de Informática, Rua Guaranésia, n. 425, CEP 02112-000, São Paulo, SP, Brazil;2. Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie, Escola de Engenharia, Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Elétrica, Rua da Consolação, n. 896, CEP 01302-907, São Paulo, SP, Brazil;3. Universidade de São Paulo, Escola Politécnica, Departamento de Engenharia de Telecomunicações e Controle, Av. Prof. Luciano Gualberto, travessa 3, n. 380, CEP 05508-900, São Paulo, SP, Brazil;1. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, McGill University, 805 Sherbrooke W., Montréal, QC H3A 2K6, Canada;2. Centre de recherches mathématiques, Université de Montréal, C.P. 6128, succ. Centre-ville, Montréal, QC H3C 3J7, Canada;1. School of Mathematical Sciences, Shandong Normal University, Ji’nan 250014, PR China;2. Research Center on Logistics optimization and Prediction of Engineering Technology, Ji’nan, Shandong 250014, PR China;1. San Raffaele University, Via Olgettina 58, 20132 Milan, Italy;2. Departamento de Física, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Tulipán s/n, 28933 Móstoles, Madrid, Spain;1. Nonlinear Electronics Laboratory, Center for Physical Sciences and Technology, LT-01108 Vilnius, Lithuania;2. Department of Physics, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, LT-10223 Vilnius, Lithuania;1. Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Skopje, Macedonia;2. BioCircuits Institute, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093-0402, USA |
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| Abstract: | Assume that the households of a country are socially classified according to the monthly total income, and that they can be part of a lower, a middle or an upper class. By using multi-agent systems, here we model and simulate the economic evolution of households which earn a wage, pay taxes and invest in education. The return of the education investment is monthly added to the salary of the family, and it is function of the corresponding grand total put in education along the time. When a family is unemployed, we consider that it receives cash due to a social program made by the government. The time evolution of the percentages of households belonging to each class is investigated by varying the government investment in such a program of cash transfer and the proportion of employed households in the population. We show that the government should invest in the unemployed lower class if it intends a growth of the middle class. We also propose and analyze a mean-field approximation written in terms of ordinary differential equations. In addition, we verify that our model fits real data from Brazil, in the period between 2003 (when the cash transfer program Bolsa Família was launched) and 2011. |
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| Keywords: | Conditional cash transfer Econophysics Education investment Household economics Mean-field approximation Multi-agent system |
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