Maximum likelihood estimation of a change-point in the distribution of independent random variables: General multiparameter case

In a sequence ofn independent random variables the pdf changes fromf(x, 0) tof(x, 0 + δv_n⁻¹) after the firstnλ variables. The problem is to estimateλ (0, 1 ), where 0 and δ are unknownd-dim parameters andv_n → ∞ slower thann^1/2. Let_n denote the maximum likelihood estimator (mle) ofλ. Analyzing the local behavior of the likelihood function near the true parameter values it is shown under regularity conditions that ifn_n²(− λ) is bounded in probability asn → ∞, then it converges in law to the timeT_(δjδ)^1/2 at which a two-sided Brownian motion (B.M.) with drift1/2(δ′Jδ)^1/2ton(−∞, ∞) attains its a.s. unique minimum, whereJ denotes the Fisher-information matrix. This generalizes the result for small change in mean of univariate normal random variables obtained by Bhattacharya and Brockwell (1976,Z. Warsch. Verw. Gebiete37, 51–75) who also derived the distribution ofT_μ forμ > 0. For the general case an alternative estimator is constructed by a three-step procedure which is shown to have the above asymptotic distribution. In the important case of multiparameter exponential families, the construction of this estimator is considerably simplified.