煤炭城市可持续发展的系统动力学模拟与调控

煤炭城市是由人口、资源、经济与环境四个子系统构成的复杂系统.其可持续发展依赖于各子系统的合理结构和发展模式以及对系统的有效控制.将可持续发展思想与系统动力学模拟方法相结合,在分析了煤炭城市系统结构基础上,构建了煤炭城市系统动力学模型:确定生育指数、各产业投资比例、资源循环利用率等为调控参数,以典型煤炭城市鸡西市为例进行了5种发展模式的模拟和调控.结果表明:可持续发展模式与其他四种发展模式相比,取得的经济、资源、环境整体效益最大,是鸡西市发展的相对最佳方案.

Simulation and Adjustment of system Dynamics on Sustainable Development in the Coal Cities

The coal city is a complex system composed of the subsystems such as population,resource,economic and environment.Sustainability in the coal city depends on the reasonable structure,development pattern of each subsystem and their effective adjustment.The concept of sustainability and the simulation method of system dynamics were combined,the system dynamics model for the coal city was built on the analysis of its' structure.The adjustment parameters such as procreate index,investment ratio of industry and resource recycling rate etc,were confirmed.The typical coal city of Jixi is taken as an example:five future development patterns were designed and run on the model.The simulated results indicate that the sustainable development pattern is the best development pattern for Jixi comparatively.