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| 流行病灭绝时间和费用估计随机模型 | |
| 引用本文： | 李文龙,蒋义文,姚楠.流行病灭绝时间和费用估计随机模型[J].数学杂志,2007,27(2):181-187. |
| 作者姓名： | 李文龙 蒋义文 姚楠 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 华中科技大学管理学院,湖北武汉,430074;军事经济学院基础部,湖北武汉,430035 2. 军事经济学院国防经济系,湖北武汉,430035 3. 军事经济学院基础部,湖北武汉,430035 |
| 摘 要： | 本文用具有吸收状态的生灭马氏过程建立了流行病随机模型,研究了灭绝之前生灭过程的分布,发现初始分布是拟平稳分布时,其灭绝时间服从指数分布,并得到了灭绝时间与状态概率的关系式和费用估计的期望值.应用模型给出了一个固定人口为N的流行病灭绝时间和平均费用的数值模拟结果. |
| 关 键 词： | 灭绝时间 费用估计 马氏过程 拟平稳分布 |
| 文章编号： | 0255-7797（2007）02-0181-07 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-03-012005-12-19 |
ESTIMATE OF EXTINCT TIME AND COST IN THE STOCHASTIC EPIDEMIC MODEL |
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| LI Wenlong,JIANG Yiwen,YAO Nan.ESTIMATE OF EXTINCT TIME AND COST IN THE STOCHASTIC EPIDEMIC MODEL[J].Journal of Mathematics,2007,27(2):181-187. | |
| Authors: | LI Wenlong JIANG Yiwen YAO Nan |
| Institution: | 1. Management School, Huazhong Science and Technology University, Wuhan 430074, China;2. a. Dept. Foundation Course ; b. Dept. Defense Economics, Military Economic Academy, Wuhan 430035, China |
| Abstract: | A stochastic epidemic model is established by using birth-death Markov process with absorbing state. If the initial distribution is quasi-stationary, the time to extinction obeys exponential distribution. The expectation of cost and the relationship between the time to extinction and state probabilities are obtained. We give an example modeling the time to extinction and the mean cost of epidemic model in a population with fixed number N. |
| Keywords: | epidemic model time to extinction cost estimate Markov process quasi-stationary distribution |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |