Bargaining set theory and stability in coalition governments

Various bargaining set theories are compared as predictors of coalition government portfolio distribution. While the kernel and B₁-bargaining set are known to exist in voting games with side payments, it is argued that the kernel, and thus B₁, are poor predictors. The B₂-bargaining set, a subset of B₁, when it exists is shown to be a good payoff predictor in a fractionalized and depolarized parliamentary situation (Finland: 1945ndash;1971). Moreover this predictor provides some explanation for the formation of surplus (winning but not minimal) coalitions.