Influence of others on one's decision: A model of group choice

The paper suggests a model of decision of group members in supporting or opposing a given social issue. The central assumption states that the probability of a positive decision of nth person depends on the number of positive choices among the n-1 persons who preceded him in making the decision. Formulas are given for the expectation and variance of the total group support. It is also shown how these results may be applied to optimally allocating the resources among various propaganda tasks.