对相关市场条件下贸易竞争的博弈机制及福利效应的研究

在古诺双头模型的框架内分析了市场风险和相关因素对贸易竞争均衡和福利水平的影响.与传统模型不同,假设各国市场具有潜在相关的随机需求,且出口企业具有风险规避的态度,并利用博弈模型研究了市场风险和相关因子对竞争力和成本优势形成的产出效应及定价行为的影响.推论表明国际市场的不确定性和相关性削弱了企业在完全信息条件下参与贸易竞争的动机,而各国的福利水平则取决于企业风险态度、市场风险和相关系数的特定组合.

On The Game Mechanism and Welfare Efficiency of the Trade Competition Under Correlated Market

The paper analyzes the impacts of the market risk and correlated factors on the trade competitive equilibrium and the welfare level under the frame of Cournot-duopoly model.Unlike the traditional model,the paper presume there are potential correlated stochastic demands in bilateral markets and the firms have the risk-averse attitudes,thus apply the game model to study the influences of the risk and correlated factors on the the output efficiency which result from the firm competence and cost advantage while on the price behaviors also.The propositions show that the firms have less strong incentives to participate in trade competition with market uncertainty and correlation than under the condition of the complete information,furthermore,the welfare levels of the countries is determined by special portfolios of the risk attitude of the firms,the risk and correlated indexes in the market.