新型冠状病毒肺炎的流行病学参数与模型

一种新型冠状病毒感染导致的肺炎自2019年12月至今在我国以及200多个国家和地区传播.本文旨在介绍近期关于新型冠状病毒肺炎的几个重要流行病学参数的研究进展和估计方法,包括基本再生数、潜伏期和代间隔,同时还介绍两个动力学模型及其结果.这些参数刻画了新型冠状病毒肺炎的传播特点,影响控制策略的制定和有效性.简要来说,新型冠状病毒肺炎的基本再生数R0的中位数为2.6,潜伏期均值约为5.0 d,代间隔均值约为5.5 d.这表明新型冠状病毒肺炎传播速度快.诸如对确诊病人的隔离治疗、对疑似病例的隔离、对密切接触者的追踪、对疾病信息的宣传和采取自我防护等防控措施能有效降低疾病暴发的风险和规模.

Epidemiological parameters and models of coronavirus disease 2019

The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)has become a major public health concern internationally.To capture the epidemic growing patterns and quantify the transmissibility,some key epidemiological parameters and dynamic models are of significance for helping us to understand the features of COVID-19 and thus informing the strategic decision-making in combating the outbreak.In this study,we review and summarize the recently released research results about the reproduction numbers,incubation period and serial interval of COVID-19.We summarize the estimates as well as estimation approaches adopted to calculate these epidemiological parameters in the existing literature.These studies found that the basic reproduction number is estimated at 2.6,the mean incubation period at about 5.0 days,and the mean serial interval at about 5.5 days.The COVID-19 infections can increase rapidly if it is not controlled.The control measures including the isolation,quarantine,contact tracing,improvement of public awareness,and adoption of self-protection measures can effectively mitigate the COVID-19 outbreak.