基于决策树方法的水库跨流域引水调度规则研究

目前跨流域引水调度属于常规引水规划调度方式,没有考虑实时信息.利用数据挖掘技术中的决策树方法将水库当前的气象预报信息和下垫面蓄水状态、水库多年的实际运行情况等资料与水库管理者的实际调度经验相结合,提出跨流域引水水库的实时调度规则.研究分三步,即首先选取旬初库水位、GFS预报与实际降雨量,旬前土壤含水状态,以及跨流域引水量等资料构成水库调度数据集;然后利用数据挖掘技术从中提取跨流域引水调度决策树;最后对调度决策树进行检验获取跨流域引水水库实时调度规则.实例计算结果表明,采用决策树跨流域引水调度规则进行水库引水调度,可提高水资源利用效率,增加水库综合效益.研究成果对跨流域引水水库实时调度的深入研究与应用有参考价值.

Research on reservoir operation rules of inter-basin water transfer based on decision tree method

The inter-basin water transfer operation belongs to the conventional water transfer planning operation mode,and the real-time information is not considered in the operation.To solve this problem,the decision tree method in data mining is used combining the current reservoir forecast information,underlaying surface water storage condition,perennial reservoir running situation and other data with the reservoir managers’ actual operation experiences,and then,the inter-basin water transfer real-time operation rules can be realized.Research process has three steps.Firstly,initial reservoir water level,actual rainfall,GFS forecasting rainfall,soil moisture,diversion water quantity,etc.are selected to compose the reservoir operation data set.Secondly,the inter-basin water transfer operation decision tree is extracted by using data mining technology.Finally,the operation decision tree is tested and the inter-basin water transfer real-time operation rules are obtained.The actual example results show that using decision tree inter-basin water transfer operation rules in the reservoir operating can increase the water resource efficiency and the reservoir comprehensive benefits.This research result has some reference value for the further study and application of the inter-basin water transfer real-time operation.