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Time Consistent Dynamic Risk Measures
Authors:Kang Boda  Jerzy A Filar
Institution:(1) Center for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, School of Mathematics & Statistics, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA, 5095, Australia
Abstract:We introduce the time-consistency concept that is inspired by the so-called “principle of optimality” of dynamic programming and demonstrate – via an example – that the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) need not be time-consistent in a multi-stage case. Then, we give the formulation of the target-percentile risk measure which is time-consistent and hence more suitable in the multi-stage investment context. Finally, we also generalize the value-at-risk and CVaR to multi-stage risk measures based on the theory and structure of the target-percentile risk measure.
Keywords:Time consistency  Multi-stage  Target-percentile  Value-at-risk  Conditional value-at-risk  Markov decision process
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