基于CF-AHP法的风险斜坡识别方法研究

针对地质灾害隐患识别水平还不够高,灾害发生在“台账外”的问题,风险斜坡识别已成为新时代区域地质灾害调查的主要目标。本文基于贵州省最新地质灾害样本数据库,通过加权确定系数法（CF）分析滑坡及崩塌的影响因子的敏感性,划分出4个危险性值域。结合专家经验,各因子影响权重排序依次为人类工程活动、斜坡结构、坡度、地下水特征、坡形、坡高。再利用层次分析法（AHP）获得7项影响因子的权重大小,形成了快速有效的斜坡危险性打分体系。利用历史典型点进行验证与修正并结合新增地质灾害案例,9处典型历史灾害点原始斜坡危险性与灾害的规模及灾情大小呈线性关系,满足斜坡演变趋势,4处典型风险斜坡中滑坡范围线均位于风险范围线内,变形破坏特征与指标敏感性和权重较为一致,判别结果与实际情况基本相符。通过此方法,最终完成了全省88个县域内78622个斜坡单元的风险斜坡识别,共计查出风险斜坡18196处,将其及时纳入管控对象并提出防治建议,最大限度避免突发性地质灾害发生而造成人民生命财产损失。

Research on Risk Slope Identification Method Based on CF-AHP

In order to solve the problem that the identification level of hidden dangers of geological disasters is not high enough and the disasters occur "off the books", the identification of risk slopes has become the main goal of regional geological disasters investigation in the new era. Based on the latest geological disaster sample database in Guizhou Province, the sensitivity of the influencing factors of landslides and collapses is analyzed by the weighted coefficient of determination (CF) method, and four risk ranges are divided in this paper. Combined with expert experience, the ranking of the influence weights of each factor is classified as human engineering activities, slope structure, slope, groundwater characteristics, slope shape, and slope height. Then, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to obtain the weights of 7 influencing factors, forming a fast and effective slope hazard scoring system. Historical typical points were used for verification and correction, and new geological disaster cases were also incorporated. The linear relationship is presented by the original slope risk of 9 typical historical disaster points and the scale of the disaster and the size of the disaster. In this way, the slope evolution trend is satisfied. Moreover, the landslide range lines in the four typical risk slopes are all located within the risk range lines, and the deformation and damage characteristics are relatively consistent with the sensitivity and weight of the indicators. Therefore, the judgment result is basically consistent with the actual situation. It can be concluded that through this method,the identification of risk slopes of 78,622 slope units in 88 counties in the province was finally completed, and a total of 18,196 risk slopes were detected. By incorporating it into the control object in a timely manner and putting forward prevention suggestions, the loss of people''s lives and property caused by the occurrence of sudden geological disasters has been avoided to the greatest extent.