参数扰动对企业行为的影响

经营管理者们很难对众多关键变量之间的影响关系做出准确判断,从而无法实现有效决策.为此,提出一种估算影响程度的方法.运用系统动力学原理建立企业的数学模型,即带时滞的一阶微分方程组(包含常参数、变参数和状态变量).基于灵敏度理论估计常参数和变参数扰动对状态变量的影响程度,并给出其在企业经营过程中的应用,包括扰动解的外推和参数间重要性的比较.以东城食糖经营公司为例进行分析研究,验证所提方法的可行性.

The Influence of Parameter Perturbations on the Enterprise Behavior

Most managers are difficult to determine the influence between key variables, and thus unable to make effective decisions.To solve this problem,this paper proposes an evaluation method for influence degree.The mathematical model of enterprises,namely first order delay differential equations(contains constant parameters,variable parameters and state variables),is built based on system dynamics.Then the influence of constant and variable parameter perturbations on'states is estimated based upon sensitivity theory,and its applications to business management are presented,including extrapolation of perturbation solutions and comparison of the importance of parameters.Finally,the feasibility of the proposed method is verified by an example of Dongcheng sugar operating company.