| 基于季节ARIMA模型的电力系统负荷短期预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 汤岩,王福林,王吉权.基于季节ARIMA模型的电力系统负荷短期预测[J].数学的实践与认识,2012,42(10):74-80. |
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| 作者姓名： | 汤岩 王福林 王吉权 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 东北农业大学理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨,150030
2. 东北农业大学工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨,150030 |
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| 摘 要： | 电力负荷是影响电网寿命和可靠度的一个重要因素,其月负荷变化具有明显的周期性.介绍了应用季节ARIMA模型进行电力负荷建模预测的理论和方法,将季节ARIMA模型应用于电力系统负荷短期预测,测试结果证明了方法的有效性.
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| 关 键 词： | 预测 负荷 电力系统 季节ARIMA模型 |
Short-Term Forecasting Using Seasonal ARIMA Models in Power System |
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| TANG Yan
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WANG Fu-lin
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WANG Ji-quan.Short-Term Forecasting Using Seasonal ARIMA Models in Power System[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2012,42(10):74-80. |
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| Authors: | TANG Yan WANG Fu-lin WANG Ji-quan |
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| Institution: | 1.College of Science,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China) (2.College of Engineering,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China) |
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| Abstract: | Power load is one of the factors which affect the nature life and reliability of network in power system.Month load changes of power system have obvious periodicity. The theory and method to estabilish the time series model are discussed.Seasonal period forecastting method is used in short-term load forecasting of power sysem.The testing results show the effctiveness of the proposed method. |
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| Keywords: | forecasting load Power system Seasonal ARIMA models |
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