中国航空市场占有率的预测与分析

近年来我国航空公司经历了大规模的重组,大大提高了行业的集中度.中国国际航空股份有限公司、中国东方航空股份有限公司、中国南方航空股份有限公司,这三大航空公司几乎垄断了中国的航空市场,而三航之外的中小型航空公司旅客市场占有率较低.因此把三航之外近40家航空公司看做一整体.根据各大航空公司在2008年-2010年的旅客市场占有率数据建立二次规划模型,运用Lingo软件对转移概率矩阵进行估计,预测几大航空公司的旅客市场占有率,并探讨一些初步的改进.通过短期预测,发现未来三大航空公司仍然垄断中国市场.

Forecast and Analysis of the Market Share of the China Aviation market

In recent years our country airline has experienced massive reorganization,and greatly increased the concentration of the industry.Air China,China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines Company Limited,The three big airlines are almost monopoly of Chinese aviation market,the remaining small airlines of market share is relatively low.So we put the remaining small airlines as a whole.According to the major air carriers in 2008 to 2010 market share of passenger data to establish quadratic programming model,using Lingo software to estimate the transition probabiUty matrix to predict several major airline market share,and discuss some preliminary improve.