Detailed comparison of observed dose-time profile of October 19-20, 1989 SPE on Mir with model calculations.

The dose rate dynamics of the October 19-20, 1989 solar energetic particle (SPE) event as observed by the Liulin instrument onboard the Mir orbital station was analyzed in light of new calculations of the geomagnetic cutoff and improved estimates of the >100 MeV energy spectra from the GOES satellite instrument. The new calculations were performed using the as-flown Mir orbital trajectory and includes time variations of the cutoff rigidity due to changes in the Kp index. Although the agreement of total event integrated calculated dose to the measured dose is good, it results from some measured dose-time profile being higher and some lower than model calculations. They point to the need to include the diurnal variation of the geomagnetic cutoff and modifications of the cutoffs to variations in Kp in model calculations. Understanding of such events in light of the upcoming construction of the International Space Station during the period of maximum solar activity needs to be vigorously pursued.