基于多主体建模的社会化养老形成分析

在国家大力推进社会化养老服务体系不断发展的背景下,研究了社会化养老的形成.根据效用最大化原则,利用多主体建模方法,构建了一个包含政府、养老机构、家庭三大类主体的社会化养老仿真模型,模拟了社会化养老行为这一宏观社会经济现象的形成.仿真结果表明:就业率和工资水平对社会化养老的形成有显著影响;政府补贴对社会化养老有效需求的产生影响不显著,而对服务供给产生较大影响;而老年人的财富水平、对父母的关爱水平、对下一代资金投入和对下一代关爱水平对社会化养老的形成影响不显著.

Analysis of Formation of Social Endowment Insurance Based on the Multi-agent Model

The mechanism formation of social endowment insurance was studied under the background that the government vigorously promotes the development of social endowment insurance system. By adopting the multi-agent method， a model containing government-agent， nursing-home-agent and family-agent was established based on the principle of utility maximizationin in order to simulate the formation of such a macro social economic phenomenon. The results showed that the employment rate and wage level are the main factors affecting the formation of social endowment insurance; the government subsidy impacts the effective demands of social endowment insignificantly， but has a significant impact on the service supply; the wealth level of the aged， the care degree for parents， the fund investment on the next generation and the care degree for the next generation do not have a remarkable effect on the formation of social endowment insurance.