职工养老保险的数学模型分析及政策建议——以温州为例

根据浙江省1985-2010年历年职工的平均工资,建立Logistics模型,合理预测2011年到2045年的职工平均工资.根据养老金替代率、养老保险基金缺口数学模型,分别对30岁及40岁开始起缴养老金,直至55岁、60岁、65岁的退休人员的养老金替代率及缺口进行了比较研究.提出了既能达到目标替代率,又能维持养老金收支平衡的有效措施.

On Analysis and Policy Suggestion of Mathematical Model in Workers' Endowment Insurance---T aking Wenzhou as an Example

Retired workers endowment insurance is a hot topic concerning the people's livelihood in current times .According to the average wages of the workers in Zhejiang province from 1985 to 2010 ,we have es-tablished a Logistics model to forecast the average wages of workers from 2011 to 2045 reasonably .Ac-cording to the pension replacement rate and the mathematical model of the gap of pension insurance fund , we have conducted a comparative study on the pension gap and replacement rate for retired workers who begin to pay pension in 30 year old and 40 year old until the age of 55 ,60 and 65 years old .We have put forward effective measures which can achieve the target replacement rate and maintain the balance of pay-ments of pensions .