基于初始条件优化的非等间距多变量灰色预测模型研究

为了进一步提高非等间距多变量灰色预测模型MGM(1,m)的预测精确度,根据新信息优先原理,本文提出了一种初始值末点优化的非等间距多变量灰色预测模型。通过对模型初始点的优化,给出了优化模型的计算公式和时间响应函数,从而使模型更符合灰色预测建模时新信息优先的原则。最后,通过算例验证了所提出模型的实用性,同时表明优化后的模型可以提高模型的模拟、预测精度。

The Optimization of Non-equidistant Multi-variable Grey Prediction Model Based on Initial Value

In order to further improve prediction accuracy of multi-variable grey prediction model, by the principle of new information should be given priority, an optimized non-equidistant multi-variable grey prediction model based on the optimization of the initial value is proposed in this paper. Through optimizing the initial value of the model, the optimized formula and time response function of the model is deduced, therefore, it is more suitable for the optimized grey prediction model that new information should be first considered? Finally, a numerical example is presented to illustrate the practicability of the proposed model, and it also shows that the optimized model can improve the simulation and prediction accuracy.