我国食品卫生安全风险评估模型

食品卫生安全关系到国计民生,建立适合于我国的食品卫生安全保障体系尤为重要.人群食物摄入量模型用"对数正态分布"估计食物摄入量分布,在对国家依据气候、地理、经济等因素进行地域划分的基础上提出了能够保证小样本空间条件下采样均匀的"层次化样本分配模型"用于采样点的选取和各采样点样本数量的分配;污染物分布模型用"贝塔分布"估计食物中的污染物分布,并采用样本在时间轴上平移的方法解决了数据在时间上的不完整性问题;风险评估模型基于人群食物摄入量和食物污染物分布模型,提出"矩元法"对污染物摄入量进行评估,并给出了模型数值化求解和右分位点确定的相关算法.实验表明,风险评估模型所确定的右分位点能有效地反映当前食品卫生安全状况.

A Risk Evaluation Model of Food Sanitation Safety in China

It is crucial to establish a system suitable for Chinese condition to guarantee our foodstuff safety which is related to national economy and people's livelihood.The model of food intake,which utilizes lognormal distribution function to estimate the distribution of food intake,proposes a ″hierarchical samples allocation″ model to ensure well-proportioned quantity in small sample space among sampling areas divided based on climate,geography,economic and geographical factors.The model of pollutant,which utilizes beta distribution to estimate pollutants in the food,solves the data incompleteness by transferring samples on timescale.The risk evaluation model,based on the two models above,proposes a matrix-factor method to estimate the pollute gained from various foodstuff,then represents related algorithms about numerical solution and right fractile determination.The experiment shows that the right fractile detemined by the risk evaluation model can reflect current food sanitation condition effectively.