The Impact of Media on the Control of Infectious Diseases |
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| Authors: | Jingan Cui Yonghong Sun Huaiping Zhu |
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| Institution: | (1) School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, 210097, China;(2) Department of Information and Technology, Jiangsu Institute of Economic & Trade Technology Jiangning, Nanjing, 211168, China;(3) Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Canada, M3P 1P3 |
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| Abstract: | We develop a three dimensional compartmental model to investigate the impact of media coverage to the spread and control of
infectious diseases (such as SARS) in a given region/area. Stability analysis of the model shows that the disease-free equilibrium
is globally-asymptotically stable if a certain threshold quantity, the basic reproduction number ( ), is less than unity. On the other hand, if  , it is shown that a unique endemic equilibrium appears and a Hopf bifurcation can occur which causes oscillatory phenomena.
The model may have up to three positive equilibria. Numerical simulations suggest that when  and the media impact is stronger enough, the model exhibits multiple positive equilibria which poses challenge to the prediction
and control of the outbreaks of infectious diseases.
Research supported by the NNSF of China (10471066).
Research supported by NSERC, MITACS and CFI/OIT of Canada. |
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| Keywords: | Infectious disease SEI model media impact Hopf bifurcation multiple outbreaks |
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