代际流动性的地区差异及影响因素—来自中国的微观证据

代际流动性是测度社会不平等的重要指标，区域发展不平衡则是中国的客观现实。运用人口普查数据和中国城市年鉴，可发现中国现阶段代际流动性的三个特征：（1）全国层面的代际收入弹性为0.673。（2）代际流动性呈现出显著的地区及城市差异，沿海、北方的代际流动性明显高于内陆及南方。代际收入弹性最低的省会城市是天津（0.107），最高的是江西南昌（0.686）；地级市分别是山东莱芜（0.124）和云南丽江（0.76）。（3）具有以下特征的地区具有更高的代际流动性：沿海及经济发达地区，高校更多、中小学教育投入更多的地区，非少数民族聚集地，革命老区。从微观机理上分析代际流动性的地区差异，可以为中国区域平衡发展政策提供理论依据。

Intergenerational Income Elasticy and Regional Difference

We use records of incomes in census 2005 and China City Yearbook (1996-2005) of more than 70 thousands children and their parents to describe three features of intergenerational mobility in modern China. First, we characterize the joint distribution of parent and child income at the national level, the conditional expectation of child income given parent income is linear in percentile ranks. On average, A 1% percentile increase in parent income is associated with 0.673% percentile increase in a child’s income. Second, intergenerational mobility varies substantialy across areas within the modern China. For example, the probability that a child reaches the top quintile of the national income starting from a family in the bottom quintile is the highest in Tianjin but the lowest in Nanchang. Third, we explore the factors correlated with upward mobility. (1) the coastal and developed areas; (2) the areas with more universities and low student-teacher ratio primary and high schools; (3) the areas with less minorities; (4) old revolutionary base areas.