Analytic models for West Coast storm surges,with application to events of January 1976

Simple mathematical models describing wind-induced motion on a continental shelf are used to predict storm surges at the port of Milford Haven on the west coast of the British Isles. Attention is concentrated on surge events occurring during the stormy month of January 1976. It is demonstrated that useful first-order accuracies in prediction can be achieved. Oceanic influence on the coastal surge is shown to be small. Satisfactory results are obtained with wind input data coming either from the analysis of daily weather charts or from recorded values of wind speed and direction at a group of meteorological stations.