面向区域综合发展的系统动力学研究进展及其在青藏高原的应用

利用Web of Science数据库检索基于系统动力学开展区域综合发展建模分析的文献，对检索结果进行文献计量分析，从研究趋势、研究力量、发表途径、研究主题4个方面探究该领域研究进展；并以青藏高原作为典型区域，详细回顾系统动力学在该区域的综合发展问题中的应用并提出展望．发现:1）基于系统动力学开展区域综合发展建模的研究起步初期发展缓慢，但当前发展势头迅猛，正逐渐成为研究热点．2）中国的发文量远超美、英等国，同时影响力具有提升空间；高被引作者中美国学者居多，中国高被引作者仅有1位．3）相关研究的主要刊文期刊的学科门类集中，主要集中在环境科学与生态学领域，期刊整体水平较高．4）研究主题集中在碳排放、水资源管理、粮食与能源问题等全球性热点问题．5）系统动力学工具在青藏高原区域综合发展问题中仅有初步应用，具有较大发展空间；建议发挥该工具在青藏高原区域双向耦合人地系统模型构建中的作用，重点优化环境变化及其社会经济影响部分的模型设计，模拟人类活动对区域人地系统的复杂影响，从而助力区域高质量发展管理实践． 

System dynamics for modeling regional integrated development as applied to the Tibetan Plateau

System dynamics provides strong support for research in regional integrated development as tools of modeling．In this study, system dynamics literature on modeling and analysis of regional integrated development were retrieved from Web of Science．Retrieved literature was analyzed by 4 parameters: trends, strengths, journals, topics．The keyword “Tibetan Plateau” was then added in further retrievals．We found that these studies developed slowly initially, but the current development momentum was rapid, indicating increased popularity of system dynamics in the study of regional integrated development．The number of published articles from China was found to far exceed other countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom．But the influence of Chinese scholars was still relatively weak．Five of the top ten most-cited authors were from America．Only one Chinese author was on the list of top ten most-cited authors．The major journals involved environmental science and ecology, all with high impact factors．Studies were found to focus on global issues such as carbon emission, water management, food and energy．At present, system dynamics studies of regional integrated development in the Tibetan Plateau is still at an early stage and we have yet to see its huge potentials．System dynamics should play more important roles in the establishment of bidirectional coupled human-environment system models in the region．Specifically, model parts of environment changes and their influences on socioeconomic sectors should be focused and optimized to better simulate complex influence of human activities on regional coupled human-environment system, to facilitate practices of governance of regional high-quality development．