Bayesian Model Assessment in Joint Modeling of Longitudinal and Survival Data With Applications to Cancer Clinical Trials |
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Authors: | Danjie Zhang Ming-Hui Chen Joseph G Ibrahim Mark E Boye Wei Shen |
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Institution: | 1. Gilead Sciences, Inc., Foster City, California;2. Department of Statistics, University of Connecticut, Storrs, Connecticut;3. Department of Biostatistics, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina;4. Eli Lilly and Company, Lilly Corporate Center, Indianapolis, Indiana |
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Abstract: | Joint models for longitudinal and survival data are routinely used in clinical trials or other studies to assess a treatment effect while accounting for longitudinal measures such as patient-reported outcomes. In the Bayesian framework, the deviance information criterion (DIC) and the logarithm of the pseudo-marginal likelihood (LPML) are two well-known Bayesian criteria for comparing joint models. However, these criteria do not provide separate assessments of each component of the joint model. In this article, we develop a novel decomposition of DIC and LPML to assess the fit of the longitudinal and survival components of the joint model, separately. Based on this decomposition, we then propose new Bayesian model assessment criteria, namely, ΔDIC and ΔLPML, to determine the importance and contribution of the longitudinal (survival) data to the model fit of the survival (longitudinal) data. Moreover, we develop an efficient Monte Carlo method for computing the conditional predictive ordinate statistics in the joint modeling setting. A simulation study is conducted to examine the empirical performance of the proposed criteria and the proposed methodology is further applied to a case study in mesothelioma. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. |
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Keywords: | CPO DIC LPML Monte Carlo method Patient-reported outcome (PRO) |
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