重大事件与政策调整对杭州市住房市场价量波动的影响

基于2004~2015年杭州市主城区新建商品住宅月度交易价格和成交套数数据,采用圆频率(circle-frequency CF)滤波和结构突变检验法,研究重大事件与政策调整对杭州市住房市场周期波动的影响.发现重大事件和政策导致房价序列及交易量序列出现周期拐点,并存在结构性断点,其中金融危机、"救市政策"与"新国十条""新国五条"及其细化产生的限购令等调控政策对杭州主城区新建商品住宅价格和交易量影响最大,影响周期长、幅度大.后两者还与价格和交易量的结构突变点紧密相关.

The influence of significant events and control policies on price and volume in housing market of Hangzhou

Using the circle-frequency and structural change test method, we studied the influence of significant events including financial crisis, bailout policies and control policies on the operation rules of cyclical fluctuations in the real estate market in Hangzhou. The results show that significant events and control policies lead to cyclical turning points and structural breakpoints of housing price series and trading volume series. Financial crisis, bailout policies, “New National Ten” and “New National Five” as well as its detailed housing restriction policy have great effect on housing price and trading volume. The influencing cycle is long, and the extent of effect is large. The last two factors are closely related to the breakpoints of housing price and trading volume.