中国古文献记载中“死者万计”事件的时空特征与原因分析

自然灾害是人地关系最为显性的自然事件.通过检索《中国基本古籍库》及《爱如生数据库·中国方志库》,整理了中国古文献记载中自然灾害导致的"死者万计"事件的发生频次,利用最小二乘法、小波分析和M-K检验等方法,分析其时空特征及发生原因.结果表明:历史时期"死者万计"事件频发,共有217a,主要类型为疫灾、饥灾、飓风、水灾.魏晋南北朝为第1个小活跃期,明清集中了总年数的60.8%,为第2个活跃期,并且秋季和夏季出现次数最多.10a频次呈极显著的波动上升趋势,最大值在1580~1589年,分为频次最少-缓慢上升-频次平缓-快速上升4个阶段,1820年发生增多突变.灾害演化过程中存在26,7和4a共3个周期.空间分布差异明显,以江苏、浙江为主的长江中下游和以河南为主的黄河中下游是2个高频中心,且各省灾害结构不同.气候的寒冷与异常、季节变化、灾害结构、人口规模、社会动荡、朝代更替等是灾害发生的主要原因.

The temporal-spatial distribution and cause analysis of the “number of deaths amounted to more than ten thousand people” events in Chinese ancient documents

Natural disaster is the dominant nature event on man-land relationship. Based on "Database of Chinese Classic Ancient Book" and "Chinese Local Gazetteers Database by Erudition", the occurring frequency of the "number of deaths amounted to more than ten thousand people" events that were caused by natural disasters in Chinese ancient documents is reorganized. The temporal-spatial distribution and cause analysis are analyzed by methods of least squares, wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall mutation testing. The results showed that historical China has high frequency of "number of deaths amounted to more than ten thousand people" events which occurred in 217 a, and the main natural disasters were epidemic disaster, hunger disaster, hurricane and flood disaster. The Wei, Jin, Northern and Southern dynasties were the first low activities period, and the Ming and Qing dynasties formed the second activities period which had concentrated 60.8% of disaster years. Summer and spring were disaster-prone seasons. Change in occurring frequency on the decade intervals showed the very significant volatility rising trend and the maximum appeared in the years from 1580 to 1589, and the frequency experienced four stages i.e. less, slowly increased, frequency gently, rapid increase, and increased remarkably after 1820. Wavelet analysis showed that the disaster evolution cycle were 26 a, 7 a and 4 a. The spatial distribution of the "number of deaths amounted to more than ten thousand people" events varied distinctly. The middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River especially Jiangsu, Zhejiang Provinces and the middle-lower reaches of the Yellow River especially Henan Province were the two high-frequency centers. Different provinces had respective structure of disasters. It is showed that there is a closely relationship between the "number of deaths amounted to more than ten thousand people" event frequency and the climate, the season changes,structure of disasters, population scale, social turbulence, and alternation of dynasties.