| 基于PCA-VAR模型的房地产信贷政策调控效应分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李秀婷,刘凡,吴迪,董纪昌,高鹏.基于PCA-VAR模型的房地产信贷政策调控效应分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2012,42(22):31-41. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李秀婷 刘凡 吴迪 董纪昌 高鹏 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院研究生院管理学院,北京,100190 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，中国科学院预测科学研究中心主任基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 有效的房地产调控,既要实现稳定房价、控制房地产开发投资过快增长等调控目标,同时也不会对宏观经济带来过大的负面影响.在分析各类房地产调控政策传导机制的基础上,通过构建PCA-VAR模型,并综合运用了协整分析、Granger因果检验、方差分解和脉冲效应分析等方法,细致测算了房地产信贷政策对房地产市场和宏观经济的影响,据此为我国实施房地产调控提供政策建议.
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| 关 键 词： | 房地产信贷政策 调控效应 PCA-VAR模型 脉冲响应分析 |
Do the Credit Policies Work Well in Chinese Real Estate Market: An Empirical Analysis with PCA-VAR Model |
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| LI Xiu-ting
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LIU Fan
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WU Di
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DONG Ji-chang
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GAO Peng.Do the Credit Policies Work Well in Chinese Real Estate Market: An Empirical Analysis with PCA-VAR Model[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2012,42(22):31-41. |
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| Authors: | LI Xiu-ting LIU Fan WU Di DONG Ji-chang GAO Peng |
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| Institution: | (Management School,Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China) |
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| Abstract: | An effective real estate policy not only helps to achieve the regulation objectives, like the control of high housing price and excessive growth of real estate investment,but also wouldn't impose too much negative impacts on the macroeconomy at the same time.This paper tries to evaluate the effects of current housing policies in Chinese real estate market according to the principle.The theoretical transmission mechanism of real estate policies are firstly constructed;and then a PCA-VAR model is proposed,based on which the effect of main real estate credit policies in Chinese real estate market is measured by employing cointegration analysis,granger causality test,variance decomposition as well as impulse response analysis.And finally relate suggestions are provided. |
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| Keywords: | real estate credit policy real estate market PCA-VAR Model impulse response analysis |
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