| SARS流行病传染动力学模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 姚玉华,孙丽华.SARS流行病传染动力学模型[J].数学的实践与认识,2004,34(3):1-5. |
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| 作者姓名： | 姚玉华 孙丽华 |
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| 作者单位： | 大连理工大学应用数学系,大连,116024 |
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| 摘 要： | 建立了 SARS流行病的数学模型 ,根据部分国家和地区的 SARS疫情数据 ,计算出其模型参数 ,给出了各地 SARS疫情与模拟结果的比较图 ,模拟结果与实际疫情十分吻合 .分析了 SARS流行特征 ,并对疫情发展进行了预测 .
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| 关 键 词： | SARS模型 动力学模拟 最小二乘法 SARS疫情预测 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年6月29日 |
Dynamics Model of Infection of SARS Epidemic |
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| YAO Yu-hua,SUN Li-hua.Dynamics Model of Infection of SARS Epidemic[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2004,34(3):1-5. |
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| Authors: | YAO Yu-hua SUN Li-hua |
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| Abstract: | A mathematic model of SARS epidemic is established. According to the data of SARS epidemic situation in some regions and countries, the model parameters about the infected characteristic of virus are computed. The graphs of the simulation results are drawn, and the simulation results are consistent with the practical situation. The characteristic of the disease is analyzed, and the future epidemic situation is predicted. |
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| Keywords: | SARS model dynamics stimulaton method of least square SARS epidemic situation predicting |
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