基于Logit模型的珠三角城际轨道交通与公路客运竞争力研究

随着城际轨道交通的出现,传统的公路客运将会受到前所未有的挑战.在分析影响城际轨道交通和公路客运竞争力的各因素的基础上,采用Logit模型对广州-深圳间城际轨道交通与公路客运的分担率进行研究,并总结两种运输方式各自的优势和劣势,最后对珠三角公路客运的发展提出几点建议.

Study on Rivalrousness Between Intercity Track Transportation and Highway Transportation Based on Logit Model

As the appearance of the intercity track transportation, traditional highway transportation will face a really big challenge. This paper analyses the factors that influence the rivalrousness between them; then estimates the distributing rates on passenger flows between the intercity track transportation and highway transportation using the Logit model. A new method is used to calculate the utility function of transport product. And the utility function of transport product is applied instead of the traditionally used linear regression functions in the Logit model. Finally this paper gives some suggestions about the development of highway transportation.