出境旅游网络关注度时空演变及影响因素研究——以泰国为例

网络关注度是测量潜在旅游者对目的地旅游关注情况及需求变化的重要手段之一。基于百度指数，以我国31个省（区、市）（不含港、澳、台）的泰国旅游网络关注度为研究对象，运用季节性强度指数、地理集中度指数、赫芬达尔-赫希曼指数、地理探测器等方法，探讨我国居民对泰国旅游网络关注度的时空演化规律及其影响因素。结果表明：从时序演化上看，2011—2019年泰国旅游网络关注度呈波动上升态势，可划分为快速上升期和平稳发展期2个阶段，地区季节性差异显著，3月、7月、12月为泰国旅游网络关注度的高峰时段；从空间分异上看，泰国旅游网络关注度空间分异变化不大，空间集聚趋于分散状态，整体呈“东高-西低”的阶梯状递减特征，高关注度地区主要集中在东部地区及四川省，低关注度地区则主要分布于除四川省外的西部省份；从影响因素上看，经济发展水平（人均可支配收入、GDP）、交通便利程度、贸易开放度以及国际旅游开放度共同影响泰国旅游网络关注度的空间分布格局。

Research on the spatial-temporal dynamic evolution and influencing factors of outbound tourism network attention: A case study on Thailand

Based on Baidu index, this study takes 'Thailand tourism network attention' of 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) as the research object, and explores the spatial-temporal evolution of domestic residents' attention to Thailand tourism network and its influencing factors based on seasonal intensity index, geographic concentration index, Herfindahl-Hirschman index and with geographic detector. The results can be concluded as below: from the perspective of time series evolution, Thailand tourism network attention shows a fluctuating upward trend from 2011 to 2019, which can be divided into two stages: rapid upward stage and stable development stage. The seasonal differences are extremely obvious. Over the years, March, July and December are the peak time of Thailand tourism network attention. From the perspective of spatial differentiation, the spatial structure of Thailand tourism network attention exhibits a similar spatial distribution every year. It appears as a ladder-like distribution of "high in the east and low in the west" as a whole. The area with high attention are mainly concentrated in the eastern region and Sichuan Province, while area with low attention are mainly distributed in the western provinces. From the perspective of influencing factors, the overall economic level (GDP), per capital disposable income, transportation convenience, trade openness and international tourism openness jointly affect the spatial distribution of Thailand's tourism attention, and the fundamental cause for the spatial differentiation on network attention lies in the level of economic development.